What We Know and What We Don’t Know

As outcomes from Election Day proceed to trickle in, it’s nonetheless not clear whether or not Republicans or Democrats will management the subsequent Home and Senate, and by how a lot. Nonetheless, it’s clear that Republicans suffered each main wins and main losses in midterm elections throughout the nation.

“A few of the large wins we noticed in Florida. [Gov. Ron] DeSantis bought about 19 [percentage points] over [Democrat Charlie] Crist, which is a large margin. This can be a state that Donald Trump carried in 2020 by 3 factors,” says Noah Weinrich, communications director for Heritage Motion for America, the grassroots arm of The Heritage Basis. (The Day by day Sign is Heritage’s multimedia information group.)

“Traditionally earlier than that, it’s been seen as a swing state,” Weinrich says of Florida. “It’s the bellwether.”

On the flip aspect, nevertheless, Republicans suffered a loss in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, the place Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, defeated Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican.

“So a number of the losses we noticed … had been in actually tight races like Pennsylvania. Dr. Oz misplaced towards John Fetterman. I haven’t checked the ultimate margin, however it was solely by, I consider, 2 factors or one thing like that,” Weinrich says.

“Now, that was a state that President Trump gained very narrowly in 2016 [and] misplaced very narrowly in 2020,” he says.

Weinrich joins this episode of “The Day by day Sign Podcast” to debate the wins and losses of Election Day, the races nonetheless up within the air as of the podcast’s recording, and key points that drove voters to the polls.

Hearken to the podcast beneath or learn the calmly edited transcript.

Samantha Aschieris: Becoming a member of at present’s present is Noah Weinrich. He’s the communications director for Heritage Motion. Noah, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us.

Noah Weinrich: Yeah, completely. Thanks for having me.

Aschieris: After all. I wish to discuss somewhat bit about Election Day. We don’t know the entire outcomes as of now, as of this recording, however I wish to begin with a number of the large wins for conservatives that we noticed.

Weinrich: Yeah, completely. So, there have been some large wins for conservatives. I gained’t sugarcoat it—there have been some large losses as effectively.

A few of the large wins we noticed in Florida. [Ron] DeSantis bought about 19% over [Charlie] Crist, which is a large margin.

This can be a state that Donald Trump carried in 2020 by 3 factors. Traditionally, earlier than that, it’s been seen as a swing state. It’s the bellwether. [George W.] Bush gained in 2000 by a number of hundred or a number of thousand votes. We didn’t know that outcome for months. However now it appears to be like like Florida has grow to be a ruby pink state, largely due to DeSantis and his efficient political machine down there and his efficient insurance policies.

[Marco] Rubio did very effectively as effectively. He bought about 16% over his opponent, Val Demings, in an costly race. Anna Paulina Luna, a Home candidate down there, she did an awesome job. Very conservative candidate. She did wonderful. She gained.

So Florida was a vivid spot in a blended bag evening.

There have been vivid spots in New York. Lee Zeldin didn’t flip the governorship, however that was all the time going to be a stretch. He got here inside 5 factors of Kathy Hochul, which is wonderful in a state like New York. She gained by 60% final time round, she solely bought 53% this time.

Aschieris: Wow.

Weinrich: So that’s an accomplishment. 4 Lengthy Island seats went Republican as effectively. That could be very spectacular. There was a seat that flipped in New Jersey as effectively. There was a seat in Virginia. So that you noticed loads of pickups alongside the Japanese Seaboard in a few of these swing suburban counties. That was actually spectacular. Elsewhere—Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez out in Texas. That was an awesome pickup.

It’s nonetheless too early to name in a few of these races like Nevada and Arizona. We’re going to be ready on outcomes for presumably days, sadly. Identical in Georgia. It’s going to a runoff.

Now, I’ll say that, for a very long time, the pundit class was predicting that [Raphael] Warnock was going to win outright. They didn’t consider in Herschel Walker. They laughed at him. However now he got here inside some extent of Warnock. He’s taking him to a runoff. That’s spectacular.

Brian Kemp gained the state by about 8 factors, I consider. That may be a large win. I feel it’s a rejection to this concept that Georgia has grow to be completely purple.

And we noticed governors throughout the map win. I consider not a single Republican incumbent governor was unseated. Individuals had been saying that Kevin Stitt in Oklahoma was going to be unseated. He gained by double digits.

Identical within the Senate. No incumbent republicans misplaced their seat. Individuals had been saying Mike Lee, he was going to have an issue with Evan McMullin. He didn’t. Gained by double, double digits. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, he gained over his challenger, Mandela Barnes. In North Carolina, Ted Budd—who was not an incumbent senator, however he was consultant—he gained handily over his opponent, Cheri Beasley.

So there are some severe conservative victories, loads of statewide victories. However after all, the map was blended.

Aschieris: And also you introduced up Warnock. That is really his second runoff. If our viewers remembers, he was additionally in a Senate runoff in January of 2020 towards then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler. So it’ll be fascinating. I feel the runoff is in December. I don’t bear in mind the dates.

Weinrich: It’s early December.

Aschieris: December. I feel it’s, like, Dec. 5 perhaps. However that’ll be an fascinating race to observe. We’ll, after all, be monitoring that and conserving everybody up to date on the outcomes from that. On the flip aspect of the wins that we noticed for conservatives, break down a number of the losses that we noticed.

Weinrich: So, a number of the losses we noticed, a few of these had been in actually tight races like Pennsylvania. Dr. [Mehmet] Oz misplaced towards John Fetterman. I haven’t checked the ultimate margin, however it was solely by, I consider, 2 factors or one thing like that. Now, that was a state that President Trump gained very narrowly in 2016, misplaced very narrowly in 2020. So this was all the time going to be a good race.

The polls, up till the few weeks earlier than, the 2 weeks, actually, earlier than the election, had Oz down by a number of factors. He solely began gaining floor within the final a number of weeks. And so, sadly, these polls seemed like they had been really fairly correct, however they had been throughout the margin of error. So he misplaced narrowly.

New Hampshire, Don Bolduc misplaced to Maggie Hassan by about 8 or 9 factors. That was a harder loss. The polls confirmed him actually gaining floor in the previous few weeks and even tying the race up. However New Hampshire is New Hampshire, it’s a extra liberal state in some methods than loads of others. New England is a very completely different beast from loads of different states, and the voters there turned out. Abortion was extra of a difficulty in New Hampshire, and Maggie Hassan, after all, had the ability of incumbency. That was a troublesome loss.

Republicans additionally did not flip loads of governorships, together with Michigan, together with Wisconsin, together with Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania was an enormous loss.

So there have been some actual losses and loads of Home seats Republicans narrowly misplaced. After all, loads of these had been uphill battles already. You’re making an attempt to unseat incumbents. You’re making an attempt to flip a district, which is all the time more durable than conserving a district. However there have been some actual robust losses there.

Aschieris: And simply talking of races that flipped or seats that flipped, one race that I assumed was notably fascinating was in New York’s seventeenth Congressional District the place Republican candidate Michael Lawler defeated incumbent Rep. Sean Maloney. He was additionally the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee. I noticed that The Washington Free Beacon reported that that is the primary time that the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee misplaced his reelection bid in 40 years.

Weinrich: Yeah, yeah. No, it’s very spectacular. I imply, that is the man who’s tasked with profitable the Home for his complete get together, and he couldn’t even preserve his personal seat. And he misplaced the Home as effectively, which is a becoming finish to his profession as chairman of the DCCC.

Aschieris: Yeah. Are there another races that flipped that had been notably fascinating?

Weinrich: Yeah, for positive. I used to be simply taking a look at a few of them this morning. I discussed New Jersey [District] 7, Tom Kean Jr. beat Tom Malinowski. That’s been a swing district. Malinowski has gained—he really beat Tom Kean final time by just some factors. This time, Kean was capable of flip it. That’s Central Jersey, suburban, has somewhat extra of these traditional Jersey white-collar Republicans.

Andy Ogles in Tennessee, Tennessee’s fifth [Congressional District], he beat the incumbent there. It was redistricted to be modified somewhat bit, however he gained there. A really conservative candidate too. He didn’t run as a reasonable simply making an attempt to squeak by. He ran as a severe conservative. Even at one level, he took a flamethrower to a pile of President [Joe] Biden’s insurance policies. Robust man, actually robust on abortion. Very “America first.” He really used to work for Individuals for Prosperity. So he’s wonderful. He’s going to be nice in Congress. That was an enormous win as effectively.

Aschieris: And I wish to discuss extra particularly about a few of these insurance policies and points that we noticed actually having the most important influence on the election. For any of you who had been watching our reside present on Tuesday, we had a pair completely different panels speaking concerning the life concern and election integrity in addition to the economic system and inflation. The place did we see these points play out on Tuesday?

Weinrich: Completely. It differed throughout the nation. This is among the causes that you just noticed blended outcomes. Individuals had been anticipating both Republicans to win in every single place or to lose in every single place, or the toss-ups to go someway, however it actually relied on the place within the nation you had been.

Florida was a very vivid spot. A few of the locations within the Northeast had been a reasonably vivid spot. Lee Zeldin did higher than we anticipated in New York, although he didn’t win. However then within the Midwest and within the Southwest, the conservative candidates didn’t do in addition to we thought. And so a part of that comes right down to geography.

In Florida, a number of the points had been COVID lockdowns, dad and mom’ rights, the economic system. And Gov. DeSantis has executed a improbable job of displaying the way to be the mannequin of a conservative governor. Florida’s economic system is buzzing. He has stood up for folks time and time once more. He stored the state open. He handed the Mother and father’ Invoice of Rights. He’s defending households.

This was an election yr in a traditionally purple state. The temptation can be to tone issues down, attempt to run as a reasonable, preserve your head down. However he didn’t, he plowed forward as a result of he knew that conservative insurance policies work and that if he carried out them, he can be rewarded. And he was. In order that performed very effectively there.

Crime was an enormous concern in Wisconsin. That’s one of many causes that Ron Johnson beat his opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Barnes was on report encouraging the protests and even the riots in 2020 in a state that was hit notably onerous.

All of us bear in mind Kenosha, Milwaukee riots turning violent, deaths occurring, buildings and blocks burning. And Barnes, as lieutenant governor, once more, did nothing to cease that. As an alternative, he advocated for the tip of money bail. He noticed these riots and mentioned, “It’s time to make it simpler for criminals to get again out on the streets.” And the folks of Wisconsin rejected that.

And so crime performed there in a method that it didn’t in different places, which had decrease crime charges or which didn’t have the identical issues with protests or riots that Wisconsin did in 2020.

I’d say election integrity was a very large concern in Arizona specifically. They usually had been actually proved appropriate yesterday.

Blake Masters and Kari Lake each ran on an election integrity platform. They ran on saying, “It must be straightforward to vote, onerous to cheat. There are issues in our election system and we have to repair them.” And all alongside, they had been known as conspiracy theorists, election deniers, regardless of the company media may throw at them, and so they shut it down. Kari Lake particularly was amazingly adept at simply shutting down the media narrative.

They knew that, sure, there are issues with our elections. We noticed this in 2020. We’re seeing this now. It shouldn’t take days or perhaps weeks to know the outcomes of the election. You additionally shouldn’t have a state of affairs during which 20% of vote-counting machines aren’t working in Maricopa County. This isn’t some conspiracy concept, that is truth. It’s extensively reported it. There have been severe issues on Election Day. And the election was being run by Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who was up for governor. So it positive looks like there’s a transparent battle of curiosity.

So there have been severe issues within the election. No matter what occurs, these need to be fastened. So that they had been proved proper of their issues about our elections, not that you just’re going to listen to a lot of the media admit that.

Aschieris: Properly, Noah, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us to offer us an replace and inform us what we all know and what we don’t know for this yr’s midterm elections. We’ll need to have you ever again on as we proceed to study extra concerning the outcomes and what the subsequent Congress goes to appear to be. So thanks a lot. Noah Weinrich of Heritage Motion, the communications director there. Thanks a lot.

Weinrich: Thanks for having me.

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