The state of the UK’s main political parties appears ‘becalmed’ following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
Despite suggestions that the wall to wall news coverage of events Ukraine may impact on how the public perceive the prime minister and the government, there is no evidence as yet, that the war is having any significant impact upon people’s voting intentions.
The Conservatives made some gains from their polling nadir in late January 2022, according to extrapolated polling averages by politics.co.uk. By mid February 2022, Labour’s lead in the polls had already dropped back to 5% from the 9% it had enjoyed for a three week period in January.
There has been very little movement in the polls since Ukraine’s war broke out. In the two weeks since hostilities began, Labour is at 38.8% (-0.4%), Conservatives at 34.7% (+1%), Liberal Democrats at 9.8% (–0.7%).
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If a general election were held today and the public vote was based on the average polling position over the past two weeks, the result would be a hung parliament. Labour would be 39 seats short of a majority at Westminster.
With the other minor parties that take their seats at Westminster only amassing 37, the Scottish National Party’s 56 MPs would single handedly hold the balance of power at Westminster.
The prime minister is however able to find some comfort. He would retain his Commons seat, where he was originally set to lose the Uxbridge constituency to Labour. However he would do so with the honour of possessing the Conservative party’s most marginal seat at Westminster.
If general elections were to reflect current opinion polling, Dominic Raab would easily surrender his Esher-Walton seat to Liberal Democrats. To return to the position they held between 1997 and 2001, all current Scottish MPs would be lost by the Conservatives.
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