After a series of peaceful rallies across the globe this weekend Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to diplomatic negotiations with Russia. This comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin placed Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert on Sunday, citing increasingly tightened international sanctions. We speak with Anatol Lieven, senior fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, who says it’s not clear whether Putin is using a nuclear threat to topple the Ukrainian government or pressure them into a deal. Lieven also speaks about Belarus’s support of the Russian invasion and argues future protests inside Russia against the war will be greatly influenced by Western sanctions.
TRANSCRIPT
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
AMY GOODMAN:This is Democracy Now! I’m Amy Goodman.
As we continue to look at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the international response, we’re joined by Anatol Lieven, senior fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, the author of numerous books on Russia and the former Soviet republics, including Ukraine and Russia: A fraternal Rivalry.
Anatol, I want to begin by asking about Russian President Vladimir Putin placing Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert. He justified the move by citing increasingly strict international sanctions. This is Putin speaking Sunday.
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: [translated] Not only do Western countries take unfriendly measures against our country in the economic dimension — I mean the illegal sanctions that everyone knows about very well — but also the top officials of leading NATOCountries are free to make hostile statements about our country. This is why I ordered the defense minister and chief-of-general staff to place Russian army combat forces on high combat alert.
AMY GOODMAN: Anatol Lieven, can you respond to the latest news and to Vladimir Putin’s statement?
ANATOL LIEVEN:Putin is clearly trying to scare the West. He wants to reduce aid to Ukraine and, also, to ensure that the West does not intervene militarily in Ukraine. But I suppose, I mean, that we might hope that this would create a backlash in Russia itself against Putin, because, after all, you know, this does raise the possibility of nuclear annihilation — not, I think, you know, that Putin has any intention of firing these missiles, but it certainly raises the rhetorical stakes very greatly.
AMY GOODMAN:Did you really think he would launch an invasion of Ukraine on a large scale?
ANATOL LIEVEN: I was — I mean, it’s been clear, since the Russian forces were assembled on the border back in December, that this was a possibility. What has surprised me — because, frankly, it surprised all the analysts I know in Moscow — is the fact that instead of occupying limited areas of Russian-speaking Ukraine in the east and south, Putin has ordered the Russian army to go straight for Kyiv. Whether this is to try to overthrow and replace the Ukrainian government with a puppet government, or whether, in the first instance, Putin is hoping to put pressure on the Ukrainian government to make a deal with Russia, that’s not entirely clear. At least, I mean, it would seem from the talks in Belarus that Moscow hopes to be able to pressure the Ukrainian government into a kind of surrender on terms, but, of course, some — it is very unclear that that will be possible.
AMY GOODMAN:Talk about the significance and potential for Belarus to send troops to join the Russian troops. Also, consider what this means for Ukraine to meet with Russia on Belarusian soil, something Zelensky initially refused to do.
ANATOL LIEVEN: Well, ever since the major protests against Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus erupted in response to the last rigged Belarusian elections, and since the West supported those protests against Lukashenko, Lukashenko has clearly felt that he has absolutely no choice but to side completely with Putin and with Russia. Lukashenko tried to maintain a distance between himself, Putin, and there was a lot of tension between them. Lukashenko seems now to believe that Putin is the only way he can survive. How much of the Belarusian army he will commit, I don’t know. If large numbers of bodies were returned, I don’t think this will be popular in Belarus. Lukashenko may feel like he cannot escape the pressure.
The talks, or rather, the first Russian demand that Ukraine declare neutrality, I mean that it should not be difficult for Ukraine that they do so, simply because the West has clearly stated that it will not defend Ukraine. It will not risk war with Russia to defend Ukraine. At that point, the West won’t admit Ukraine. NATO. You know, it’s a contradiction in terms. That should be possible. And indeed, I mean, President Zelensky of Ukraine has complained in public, very understandably, about the West’s unwillingness to fight.
Other Russian conditions are more difficult. One of these is what the Russians call “denazification”, which seems to mean that the Ukrainian government should suppress and crush extreme nationalist forces, such as the Azov Battalion or others. Demilitarization refers to a total break with all military ties to the West.
And then there is the question — and we’re not sure whether this will be the case, but whether the Russians would insist on Ukrainian recognition of the Russian annexation of Crimea and the independence of the Donbas. This has not been made an official Russian demand, but it is possible to imagine what the Russians might demand at the beginning of the talks. And that would be — well, look, from a standpoint of reality, Ukraine is not going to get Crimea back ever and, indeed, would not know what to do with it if it did, because it would obviously increase, you know, a recalcitrant Russian population in Ukraine. It can only get the Donbas back on the basis a treaty with federation that gives the Donbas complete autonomy. This is something that Ukraine has so far been unwilling to do. We will need to see if Ukrainian feelings shift on this.
Then we will need to see if the Russians actually try to create a puppet government at Kyiv. If they do, they will be total idiots, because, I mean, it’s absolutely clear that this will never work for Russia.
AMY GOODMAN:Talk about the protests that are taking place inside. I was talking about the spokesperson, 24-year-old daughter, Lisa Peskova, you know, “No to war,” issuing that on her Telegram. Six thousand Russians were arrested during these massive protests in Russia. Berlin, where are the 100,000 to 500,000 protestors? What about the risks that Russians are taking? Did you expect such a high level of protest? How will Putin handle this? They’re trying to control the information enormously, what gets into Russia, but clearly that’s breaking down. You even have now Meta, Google, and I think it’s YouTube, that are cutting off Russian-paid — the Russian ad revenue from their sites, their platforms?
ANATOL LIEVEN:Yes, I was expecting protests. However, I believe future protests will be greatly influenced not only by the Western sanctions that were brought in. This will hit not only ordinary Russians but also educated Russians who are used to traveling to and studying in West. That includes the children and grandchildren of the Russian elites. We should also remember that the Soviet Union was brought down by the 1980s revolt of the communist elites’ children. This is why I believe Putin should be very concerned about it.
And also, of course, you know, it’s one thing to arrest demonstrators on the street, but when the children of your top officials start cursing those officials over the breakfast table, then, of course, you might see the beginning of the crumbling of the regime from within, especially, of course, if the Russian economy really, as a whole, declines as a result of these Western sanctions, and if the Russian war on the ground, rather than producing the quick result which Putin obviously hoped for, in fact drags on into a bloody quagmire.
AMY GOODMAN:Let’s see, we only have 30 seconds. Do you think this is Putin rationally reacting? NATOExpanding or Russian imperialism?
ANATOL LIEVEN: Well, I mean, it’s Russian nationalism. You know, let’s be fair: America has sometimes reacted very, very badly to what, objectively speaking, have been relatively minor threats. The question is how committed the Russian elite is to what appears to be a very costly war for Russia.
AMY GOODMAN:Anatol Lieven, thank you for being here, senior fellow at Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and author of many books on Russia, the former Soviet republics, and others. Ukraine and Russia: A fraternal Rivalry.
Next, President Biden nominates Judge Ketanji Jackson to become the first Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court. Stay with us.
