A new poll shows that projections for the 2022 midterm elections were premature in concluding Republicans will win control of Congress later in the year.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted from December 27-30, asked respondents who they preferred to win in November’s federal elections. Thirty-seven% of respondents stated that they wanted Republicans to control Congress next year. while 39 percent said they preferred that Democrats retain control.
This margin of 2-points is a 10-point swing compared to what the same poll found in November last year when Republicans led Democrats by 8 percentage points in the generic ballot question.
The poll has a 3.1 point margin of error, which means it’s a statistical tie in terms of who Americans think should run Congress.
There is always the possibility of the poll being a misnomer, a survey that is inconsistent with reality. But there are some good things. USA Today/Suffolk University poll isn’t the only survey that’s revealed a shift over the past month.
An aggregate of polling data collected by RealClearPoliticsAccording to the poll, Republicans held a lead of 3.1 percentage points over Democrats on average as of December 1. This lead has decreased to an average of 1.1 points as of January 4.
Democrats are optimistic they can defy historical odds to win the midterms and maintain control of Congress. It is not unusual for a newly elected president to have a political party. to lose seats in the first midterm contest of the new chief executive’s tenure. With Democrats in Control of the House of Representatives by only five seats — and holding onto a tie-breaking vote-lead in the Senate — any net loss will likely result in their forfeiting control to Republicans.
Gerrymandering in Republican-controlled states across the country could also tip the scales against Democrats. One analysis found that even though voting patterns have not changed from 2020, they could be influenced by gerrymandering. Due to the unfair redew of congressional maps, Republicans would still win 2022..
Democrats are optimistic that they will pass. voting rights legislationto stop any further voter suppression efforts by Republicans in the time necessary for the midterm elections. Advocates also noted that canceling student debt loansIncreasing the social safety net by the Build Back Better package may further increase Democrats’ chances with voters.
The House actually passed a version on its own of the Build Back Better bill. Biden’s polling numbers went up; they went back down after conservative Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin (West Virginia) said he wouldn’t support the bill, dooming its chances in the Senate. It could be possible to pass the bill through both chambers of Congress so that Biden is able to sign it into legislation. This could lead to higher positive ratings for Democrats moving forward.