The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted following Kwasi Kwarteng’s ‘mini-Budget’ last Friday, have the Labour party now polling at levels not seen for over twenty years.
The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote, and Labour’s on 45%
The opposition party is now 17 points ahead of the Conservatives, a level of support not seen since 2001 when Labour’s Tony Blair was prime minister..
Last week, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unleashed a large package of tax cuts, removed the cap on bankers’ bonuses and announced increases in borrowing in a fiscal statement which has since led to a sharp fall in the value of sterling.
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Prior to last week’s ‘mini budget’, Labour was already enjoying a poll lead which had trended at 11.2% during the first three weeks of Truss’s tenure, up from the 8% lead that it had enjoyed at the end of the Johnson government.
The latest YouGov poll also indicated the unpopularity of the measures unveiled in Kwarteng’s ‘mini-budget’. The decision to scrap the 45% rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72% of voters – including 69% of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019. Just 19% of voters thought Kwarteng’s budget was “fair”.
IPSOS Political Monitor in September found that the Conservatives held a 15% lead in voting for those who are most confident in economic growth and managing inflation.
Labour will be entering the next election with a low base of support in England and with little electoral representation in Scotland. To form a majority government, the party must have a 12% lead on the polls.
The latest YouGov poll supports an outright Labour government. However, the trend polling over the past three weeks does not guarantee a Labour government. In politics.co.uk’s latest Westminster tracker, polling in the three weeks prior to Sept 27 had the party 8 seats short of an overall majority at Westminster.
Based on the current polling, Britain’s electoral map would be substantially redrawn. The Labour Party would win seats in areas where it has been a distant observer, such as the Bournemouth constituencies, Macclesfield, Cheshire, Bromley, and Chiselhurst, south east London. In any election held on this basis, both former prime minister Boris Johnson (and Dominic Raab) would lose their seats.
In his keynote address at the Labour Conference later today, Starmer is expected to set out his stall for the next general election by saying his plans show that Labour is once again “the party of the centre ground”.