After the recent Kansas vote to preserve abortion rights, it appears that reproductive rights will play an important role in reshaping electoral maps in the next electoral cycles. Roe v. Wade. Opponents of abortion asked Kansas citizens to vote to repeal Kansas’s state constitution, which codified their right to abortion access. Given Kansas’s politics, the anti-abortion forces had reason to think they would succeed: Fifty-six percent of voters in the state opted for Donald Trump in 2020, and the state has gone Republican in every presidential election bar one since 1940 — the exception being that it voted for LBJ in 1964.
It was thirty years ago. Wichita, Kansas,It was also the epicenter for some of the most extreme antiabortion activities in the nation. The state is also overwhelmingly religious. Two-thirds of Kansans tell pollsters they are absolutely certain God existsMost of the rest believe it is likely that God exists. Only 7 percent are atheists. Nearly one-third of Kansans describe themselves as EvangelicalsGiven the current U.S. political landscape, this means that they are almost certain to be anti abortion.
But on Election Day, the forces against choice were crushed. Roughly 6 out of 10 voters in Kansas opted to protect abortion rights.More than just a dozen countiesTrump-supporting voters in 2020 voted against removing abortion access from the state constitution. Many of the counties were suburban and urban, but many deeply conservative rural counties also voted to keep abortion legal in the state.
In the wake of the Kansas election, The New York Times’s Nate Cohn extrapolated what would happen in all 50 statesIf abortion access was put to a popular referendum. His analysis was based on both the political makeup of Kansas as well as national and regional polling on abortion. Remarkably, the newspaper concluded that the populaces of only between 7 and 10 states — most of them in the Deep South but some in the mountain West — would vote to ban abortion; the vast majority of states, even those that are solidly Republican, with political leaders who have built careers on ever-more-extreme anti-choice positions, would likely vote to retain abortion access.
The analysis revealed that Texas, where Governor. Greg Abbott and Attorney-General Ken Paxton worked together to create restrictive anti-abortion laws throughout Texas. notorious law allowing private vigilantes to sue abortion providers52 percent of the electorate supports abortion rights, as does anyone who assists someone in obtaining an abortion. Florida is home to the governor. Ron DeSantis recently suspended Tampa’s district attorney for saying that he wouldn’t prosecute abortion cases, a solid 57 percent of the public wants to retain those rights. Ohio, which had banned abortion six weeks after the Supreme Court decision and was recently in the media after a 10-year-old rape victim in the stateYou would have to travel across states to get an abortion. However, 61% support keeping abortion legal. An even higher percentage of voters in Arizona, north of three-quarters of the electorate in some polls — in a state which is now one of the country’s most crucial swing states — support abortion access. Even in Idaho51 percent of respondents favored retaining abortion rights.
In fact, in seven states where abortion rights are opposed by the majority of the population, none of them have more than 56 per cent support for reducing abortion access. In most cases, the population is much more evenly divided. In Oklahoma, where the governor recently signed a ban on almost all abortions from the moment of fertilization — the most restrictive anti-abortion law in the country — only 52 percent support the ban.
The issue of abortion is a stark example of the disconnect between state legislators and the people they represent. Post-Roe, it now looks like roughly half the state legislatures in the country — those controlled by the GOP and willing to muscle through anti-abortion laws for GOP governors to sign, at speed — will veer far to the right with their abortions bans. This could — and should — have potentially massive political implications, pitting GOP legislators against much of their own voting public.
The Kansas vote is a glimpse at what a national coalition that emphasizes abortion access as a key issue can do in the next few years, despite extremist legislatures. After all, 55 percent of voters now say that abortion is a very important issue to themIt is still ranked behind inflation as the most important issue voters cite when deciding how they vote in the midterms. For women — who lean more heavily Democratic than do men — the issue is even more resonant. More than 4 out 5 Democratic women say that the issue is important to their lives. This will likely encourage more people to vote in November than in a low-enthusiasm election.
26 states have referendum or initiative processes. In 18 states, these processes can result in constitutional amendments that override laws passed by legislators. Many of these states have anti-abortion laws, which are designed to kick in when and if necessary. Roe was overturned), or have legislatures which are very hostile towards abortion rights and are currently limiting or eliminating access to abortion. These states include Arizona (Florida), South Dakota, Nebraska and Ohio, as well as many others.
This year CaliforniaVoters will vote on a measure to codify abortion access within the state constitution. In contrast, voters in the conservative State of KentuckyIn November, we will vote on an abortion ban amendment. A number of battleground states including Michigan are engaged in ongoing legal battles over abortion rights this election season.
But 2022 is likely to be a preview of the future in the next few years. In the wake the Kansas vote, state abortion rights activists will push to get prochoice amendments onto the ballots in 2023 or 2024. These amendments could drive progressive voters to polls in large numbers and could even transform several states that have been overwhelmingly Republican in recent years to swing states in 2024.
The overturning RoeIt is, without any qualification at all, a horrendous judicial development. Yet abortion rights advocates are working to harness public support for abortion, and for legislation or referenda to protect abortion access, in the wake of the decision, which could strengthen progressive movements and eventually contribute to undermining the GOP’s grip on power in many statehouses around the country.
