Drawing on opinion polls published in the three weeks since Kwarsi Kwarteng’s mini budget, politics.co.uk’s latest Westminster model provides a graphic illustration of how the Conservatives would be decimated in any election held today.
Labour would win a general elections with a working majority of 84 seats. 234 of the Conservatives’ MPs would go with them.
14 current cabinet ministers would lose seats at Westminster, including the new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, deputy prime Minister Therese Coffey and Penny Mordaunt, who is also a potential leader.
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During the first three weeks of the Truss premiership, the Labour party’s opinion poll lead grew to 11%. The party was already well on its way to winning seats in areas where it had been a distant observer. These included Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset and Macclesfield in Cheshire. Bromley and Chiselhurst were also in south east London.
The Conservatives are now facing a more difficult situation after the September mini budget.
With the Labour poll lead in October at 25.45%, the party will now win Huntingdon. Huntingdon was once the most secure Conservative seat in England. It was previously represented at Westminster by John Major, who was then prime minister.
Based on the 2019 election boundaries it would also win the Isle of Wight. This area of the English Channel has never been represented by Labour in Westminster.
Labour Party would even seize Epsom from the Conservatives. This is famous for the annual Epsom Derby horse racing. Average house prices in this part of Surrey are some £553,452, twice the national average.
Current polling shows the remarkable shift in British politics that took place over the past 12 month. Boris Johnson had a lead over Labour of 5% at this point in last year’s opinion poll.
