Polling over the past several months has shown that President Joe Biden’s approval rating has dropped significantly since he first entered office — but at least for the time being, he is still polling ahead of all potential Republican challengers in the 2024 race.
A Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted from January 22-23 shows Biden losing a hypothetical election matchup against an unnamed “eventual Republican nominee.” Thirty-seven percent of respondents said that they would support Biden, while 46 percent said they would back an unnamed Republican challenger.
The poll results show that the numbers reverse when Biden is compared to potential Republican candidates.
In a hypothetical race, Ted Cruz (R.Texas) is defeated by Biden, 45 percent to 39 per cent. He also edged out Gov. Ron DeSantis (R. Florida), with 44% of respondents preferring President Obama and 39% backing Florida Governor.
The poll shows that Mike Pence is leading Biden by just two points. Biden is just one point behind former President Donald Trump who he defeated during the 2020 presidential campaign.
However, other polls show Biden’s margins of victory are larger. A Marquette University Law School poll published this weekBiden leads DeSantis eight points and Trump is 10 points ahead
Both polls show that Biden’s approval rating is in negative territory. The Politico/Morning Consult pollBiden is only 42 percent approved by respondents, and 56 percent disapproval. In the Marquette pollOnly 46 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove.
According to the Politico/Morning Consult poll, 1 in 5 Biden voters disapprove of Biden’s job performance. This is significant because it suggests that Biden’s low approval rating may not be the result of his policy initiatives, but rather his failure to fulfill the campaign promises that led people to support him in the first place.
While Trump was president, his approval ratings are dismal. with average polling numbers that never exceeded 50 percent. He could count on his base to support him at 90 percent or more. That meant the only way for Trump to secure higher polling numbers was to gain the support of liberal, progressive or independent voters — a nearly impossible task.
But for Biden, it’s a different story. Despite his current approval rating is similar to the rating that Trump had at the same point in his presidency, he can increase his numbers — at least somewhat — by appealing to independents and the people that voted for him in 2020. Biden can increase his approval rating without having the need to please right-wing voters.
Overall, voters still favor legislation and policies that are being promoted by the Biden administration, including the Build back Better social spending package. has polled at 60 percent or higher in Data for Progress surveysSince November 1. There’s also high support for at least some student loan forgiveness, which Biden also campaigned on but has so far refused to deliver, with 62 percent of Americans voicing support for student debt reliefDecember Passing voting rights legislation is also a highly popular initiative.
In some cases, lower approval numbers can lead incumbent lawmakers to believe that they must take a more moderate approach. However, 1 in 5 voters who voted for Biden in 2020 disapproved of his job performance suggests that a more progressive approach and actually passing his policy proposals into law might be better for Biden if he plans to run again for office in 2024.
