Who Wins — and Who Loses — Based on Rubio's Surprise Announcement

March 15, 2016Mar 15, 2016

Marco Rubio has just announced that he will stay on the campaign trail whether he wins or loses in Florida. It had been widely expected that, if he loses in Florida as the polls currently predict, he would drop out of the race.


This has an enormous impact on two people — Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. For all appearances, who wins as a result? It is likely to be Donald Trump. And who loses? It could be Ted Cruz. Here is why this could be the impact:

  • If Rubio stays in, Donald Trump could continue to win states with 40% of the vote. A common pattern so far has been Trump gets about 40%; Cruz 30%; Rubio 20%; and Kasich 10%. So Donald could continue to win states with most people opposing him.
  • If Rubio and Kasich dropped out, Cruz would get what he wants — a one on one contest with Trump. If most of Rubio's and Kasich's supporters went to Cruz, he would start winning more and more states.
  • If Rubio staying in encourages Kasich to stay in, then Donald has divided opposition who may continue fighting amongst themselves, instead of just one opponent fighting him.

All in all, if Rubio follows through on his announcement, it could be a very good day for Donald Trump.