Who Will Win Super Tuesday?

February 29, 2016Feb 29, 2016

On Super Tuesday, 12 states, largely in the South, will vote. There are currently 5 Republican and 2 Democratic candidates left in the race. Here is how we think they will do — and who will survive.


Donald Trump is heavily favored in most of the Republican states; Ted Cruz is favored in Texas; and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have a shot at winning in 2 or 3 additional states. Ted Cruz will pick up a number of votes overall since he is strong in the South and in Texas; Donald will win overall; and Marco is unlikely to drop out before March 15 when Florida votes. So these 3 will stay in the race.

The 2 Republicans who will probably not fare well on Tuesday are Ben Carson, who has been a strong candidate but has not done as well in recent weeks, and John Kasich, who has been low in the polls. Ben Carson may drop out if he does not do well. John Kasich will not drop out before Ohio votes later in the month, but if he doesn't start this Tuesday picking up at least some delegates it will be hard to convince voters he has a chance at winning.

On the Democratic side, the Bernie Sanders revolution may be running into a wall. If he can't do better in the largely Southern states this Tuesday than he did in South Carolina, he may have a hard time moving forward. He needs to pick up at least 1/3 of the delegates up for grabs on Tuesday to have a strong argument he can beat Hillary.

Since this is 2016 and politics in America, anything could still happen! But it looks likely that Tuesday will be a key day for all the 7 candidates for both parties.