Trump versus Cruz: Who Will Win in Iowa Tonight?

February 01, 2016Feb 01, 2016

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are the two leading candidates, according to polls, going into tonight's Iowa caucuses. Cruz had been leading, but Trump regained the lead according to the most recent poll.

So who will win? Here are 4 key indicators.


1) It's all about turnout. Many of Donald's supporters are people who are new to the caucus process. So if lots of people turn out, that is an indication that Trump will do well.
2) Will evangelicals be swayed by Sarah Palin's and Jerry Falwell's endorsement of Trump? Cruz would normally do better with evangelicals, but Trump has recently picked up endorsements from two high profile evangelical leaders. If evangelicals listen to Palin and Falwell, this could cut into Cruz's lead.
3) It's all about the ground game. Cruz reportedly has a much stronger ground game than Trump and he has had "troops on the ground" working on it for quite a while, so this would give an advantage to Cruz.
4) Are people listening to the negatives? While once friendly to each other, Cruz and Trump have been counterattacking vigorously the last few days. Will people listen to the negatives or will they keep their existing opinions? Over 40% of Iowa voters said as recently as last week they still had not finally made up their minds, so anything could change in these last days and hours.