SCOTUS Anti-Abortion Ruling Could Motivate Strong Dem Turnout in Midterms

New polling was done immediately after the U.S. Supreme Court revoked the abortion rights that were already recognized in Roe v. Wade finds that voters are more likely to back candidates in this year’s midterms who support reestablishing abortion rights through federal legislation.

According to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll conducted over the weekend, 56 percent of Americans do not support the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health OrganizationThe conservative majority ruled that the abortion protections set in place should be repealed in Roe. Respondents indicated that 55% of respondents support abortion rights and only 36% disagree.

The poll also asked questions about whether the Supreme Court’s anti-abortion ruling would affect Americans’ voting patterns this fall. Fivety-one percent of likely voters stated that the decision makes them more likely to vote for candidates who support legislation to restore abortion rights across the U.S. While only 36% said they would vote against such candidates.

The poll also found a widening gap when it comes to who voters plan to back in this year’s midterms. Forty-eight percent of registered voters said they’d vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were being held today, while 41 percent said they’d vote for a Republican. This gap is seven points wider than the May poll, which showed Democrats ahead by five points. It is also a 10-point increase over April’s poll, when Republicans led Democrats by three.

The Supreme Court decision from last week may also lessen a widely acknowledged “motivation gap” between Democratic-leaning voters and Republican ones. On whether the ruling will make them more likely to vote in this year’s midterms, 78 percent of Democrats said that it wouldThis is compared to only 54 percent of Republicans who shared a similar sentiment.

Separate polling data from different organizations, including an Economist/YouGov poll conducted two weeks ago, found that, while Democrats and Republicans seem to be tied on the question who should control Congress?, Republican voters were more likely than Democrats to vote in the midterms.

Other surveys also indicate that the Supreme Court’s decision will have an effect in November, mostly benefiting Democrats. An NBC News A May survey found that 1/10 voters thought that abortion was their top concern., with 52 percent saying that they’d back a candidate who would pledge to prevent Roe from being overturned — a single point difference from the Marist poll published this week.

Conventional wisdom holds that the party of an incumbent president typically does poorly in the first midtermsAfter they are inaugurated. Indeed, prognosticators have begun to predict that Congress is Republicans’ to lose in this year’s races. But this latest polling data suggests that it’s possible that the race will be much tighter than many experts have predicted — and that Democrats could potentially retain control of one or both houses of Congress If they support measures that resonate well with voters.