
New analysis shows that Congress’ total number of competitive seats is shrinking as states finalize new maps.
According to FiveThirtyEightOnly 27 of the 335 seats in Congress that have been redrawn so far by state legislatures across the U.S. have been deemed to be competitive. Each district has 27 other than those 27. one political party has an advantage of at least five points over the otherThis makes it relatively safe for the winning party to assume that they will win.
There are still 100 districts within nine different states that haven’t been mapped out yet, so it’s possible that the number of competitive seats will go up. However, most of the remaining states are already in the midst of a major reorganization. have single-party control in their governorships and legislaturesIf anything, the map’s competitiveness will only increase marginally.
Right now Democrats appear to have more seats leaning toward their advantage163 districts have been drawn in favor of Democratic control so far, and 145 districts leaning in the direction of the GOP. The remaining 100 seats will be redrawn and that could change as five of the nine states still to draw their congressional maps are under Republican control. Only one state is controlled by Democratic legislators.
The House has lost a lot of competitive districts over the past ten years. Although competitiveness was low ten years back, it has improved significantly in the past decade. in 2012 there were at least 66 competitive House districts — more than double where things currently stand.
Some of the decreases in competitiveness can’t be helped, as they are due to “clumping” of districts that can’t be drawn any differently after a decennial census occurs. But according to an analysis from The Guardian, “politicians are undoubtedly accelerating the decline in competition by distorting district lines to their advantage,” as elected officials have “made aggressive efforts to change district lines to shore up incumbents, locking in their seats for several more years.”
According to polling, most Americans don’t want their districts drawn in a way that either party can benefit from. In an Economist/YouGov survey conducted earlier this month, 63 percent of likely voters said that they support a requirement that their home state’s maps be redrawn by nonpartisan commissions. Furthermore, 58 percent said they believed the Supreme Court should strike down maps that give “lopsided” political advantages to one party over the other.
Only 28 percent of respondents to the poll believed that their district maps were drawn fairly. Thirty-six percent of respondents said that their maps were being drawn unfairly, while another 35 percent said that they couldn’t be sure one way or another.