Despite claims that there is a vacuum in British politics, and with the election of a new Conservative leader only four weeks away, August’s start has seen unexpected results in the opinion polls.
Where the Labour party went through July 2022 with an average lead in the polls of some 10.2%, six polls released so far at the start of August, now show Labour’s lead to have reduced to an average of just 3.7%.
| Date | Labour | Cons | Lib Dems | Pollster |
| 08-Aug | 37% | 33% | 11% | YouGov |
| 07-Aug | 37% | 34% | 12% | Opinion Research |
| 07-Aug | 40% | 35% | 12% | Redfield and Winton |
| 05-Aug | 39% | 34% | 13% | Techne |
| 02-Aug | 35% | 34% | 13% | YouGov |
| 01-Aug | 38% | 34% | 12% | Redfield and Winton |
| Average | 37.7% | 34.0% | 12.2% |
Trend support for Conservatives, hovering at 31% in mid-July seems to have recovered to 34%. Labour support has dropped from 42% down to just under 38% over the same time period. The Liberal Democrats remain at 12%.
It is unclear at this time what is driving the sudden shift in the polls and whether it will continue.
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It is possible that the Conservative party is gaining media attention because of the additional attention their two leadership candidates are securing on radio and TV.
It could be that people have moved on from Boris Johnson. Where the polls didn’t show any movement immediately move after his resignation, the prime minister has been far more absent from the public eye in the last two weeks.
With Liz Truss now firmly considered the front runner to become Britain’s next prime minister, it is also possible that her apparent poll lead with Conservative party members, is impacting upon sentiment in the country at large.
This week’s poll: Redfield and WintonLiz Truss was found to outperform Sir Keir Sterner, Labour leader. When asked which prime minister they thought was better, 38% voted for Ms Truss, while 35% voted for Sir Keir.
This recent shift in direction will be concerning for Labour. The current political uncertainty in the Conservative party, warnings of a coming recession, and pressures on living costs would normally be a favorable environment for the Official Opposition.
Politics.co.uk’s latest analysis shows that Labour would emerge from any general elections held today as the largest force in Westminster. However, the party would still need 38 seats to achieve an outright majority.
The possibility of a Labour/Lib Dem coalition was briefly possible in July. However, current electoral arithmetic shows that the Scottish National Party would hold a firm grip of the balance of power at Westminster.
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