Labour in ‘strongest position since 2010’ after by-election wins, says polling expert

Labour candidate Andrew Western is the nation’s latest MP after snug successful the Stretford and Urmston by-election held on Thursday. Mr Western, who secured 69.65 per cent of the votes, up 9.34 per cent on the snap common election three years in the past, stated the consequence despatched a “robust message” to Rishi Sunak’s Authorities.

Stretford and Urmston went to the polls to decide on a brand new MP after Labour’s former minister Kate Inexperienced stepped down final month having been nominated as deputy mayor of Better Manchester.

Chilly climate circumstances on polling day and the expectation of a Labour win contributed to a really low turnout of simply 25.8 per cent.

Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling knowledgeable, has stated that the outcomes of the Stretford and Urmston, and Chester by-elections present the Labour Get together is in its strongest place since 2010.


BASC logo

BASC condemns Yorkshire Dales nest incident


BASC logo

BASC urges warning over potential adjustments to EU commerce guidelines

Sir John advised the BBC Radio 4 “At this time” programme: “In the event you take Stretford and Chester collectively, they principally are in line with the proof of the opinion polls which is that Labour at the moment are in a stronger place than they’ve been at any level since David Cameron walked by way of 10 Downing Avenue as prime minister in 2010.

“Subsequently the problem that the Conservatives are dealing with is actually a really substantial one”.

Requested what the consequence advised us, Sir John identified that the swing in Urmston at 10.5 per cent was lower than that in Chester when it was almost 14 per cent. The Chester by-election was held on 1 December 2022 leading to a victory for Labour candidate Samantha Dixon.

Sir John stated: “I believe additionally in the event you have been a Conservative spokesman you’d additionally level out the extraordinarily low turnout, simply over 25 per cent, certainly by my data… I believe the 43.6 level drop within the turnout in Stretford and Urmston represents a report fall in turnout between a by-election and the earlier common election in any post-war by-election”.

Commenting additional on the political state of affairs, Sir John added that whereas Labour’s 20-point ballot lead is harking back to what was seen within the run-up to Tony Blair’s landslide victory on the 1997 common election, we’re nonetheless in “uncharted territory”. “The large distinction from that Parliament is that John Main stayed after 1992”, Sir John defined, “the Conservatives on this event have modified their prime minister albeit for a second time in a 12 months and to that extent, not less than, we’re subsequently in uncharted territory. The query we’re asking ourselves is can Rishi Sunak as a primary minister in the long run persuade voters to disregard what occurred within the Liz Truss administration?”.

In his victory speech, Mr Western stated the outcomes gave a “robust message” to the Sunak authorities.

“The Tories have given up on governing and it’s more and more clear that the British individuals are giving up on them,” he stated.

“And the folks of Stretford and Urmston don’t simply converse for this constituency however for hundreds of thousands extra folks up and down the land, who know that this Authorities has been letting us down for the previous 12 years.

“Twelve failing years of Conservative authorities, coming to an finish.

“It’s clear from this consequence tonight, and certainly the consequence two weeks in the past in Chester, that individuals are prepared for a Labour authorities, and let the message exit tonight that Labour are prepared to control. Thanks”.