Putin once stated that Russia was going to seize Kyiv within three days. Seven months on Kyiv is free, and Putin must conscript at least 300,000. This is a significant number.
Ukraine should not be afraid Let me tell you why.
The reasons for mobilisation are simple. Putin is losing the war badly right now.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the newly liberated Kharkiv region, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have just forced a seismic defeat on Russia through a combination of tactical surprise and Russia’s complacent decision to divert its forces to the Kherson region. The remaining Russian forces are now critically vulnerable as they lack many of the key transportation hubs.
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Perhaps understandingly given the scale of defeat, Russia’s Defence Minister Shoigu is now attempting to minimise Russia’s losses with a series of ridiculous claims. The most striking is the fact that only 6 000 Russian personnel have died. This raises the obvious question: why does Russia need 300,000 additional personnel to replace these 6,000?
However, the evidence of Russian concern may be even more.
New decrees were passed to allow Putin to mobilize unlimited numbers of recruits. The Duma has also legislated to make opposition to conscription illegal and increase the penalty for avoiding the draft to ten years imprisonment. Far from looking out for the interests of the Russian people, it’s clear that Putin winning the war at any cost is his only consideration.
How long will Putin take to get his newly mobilized Russians to the front? It will take approximately two months, if you consider all their requirements. This time will be used for basic training and provision of mostly Soviet weapons to the fighters. It will also give Ukraine another two months to prepare.
But, we need to win more.
The victory near Kharkiv and retreat of the Russian army proved that with the right support – from HIMARS to humanitarian supplies – our army can win quickly and decisively. Now we have the chance to end Russia. Their morale should plummet if they win the Kharkiv front.
However, this is possible only if our international friends ensure we have all the weapons needed to win. While we are grateful for the support we have received thus far, I believe that the war would have ended in April if all the weapons needed had been available.
Defeated on the battlefield, Putin’s last hope now relies on General Moroz: also known in Russia as winter. Winter will be hard. In particular, defending our energy infrastructure against Putin’s bombs must be a priority. For the rest of Europe, who is also struggling with winter due to rising oil and gas prices, my message is that the best way to survive is to prevent war from ever happening on European soil.
The lesson of recent history is that dialogue to end the war cannot be had unless Putin is defeated. He will only talk if the weapons of oil and gas cannot be used to blackmail civilized world.
Which final weapons systems are required to complete the job?
Despite it taking six months and initial claims that it would be ‘impossible’, the transfer of HIMARS has clearly transformed Ukraine’s prospects on the land. To achieve a similar transformation in our air prospects, we now need fighters, tankers and long-range missiles like the type ATACMS.
While I can understand the Western fears that this could further provoke Putin, it would actually have the opposite effect. It will only be when he and his increasingly demotivated men realise that Russia can’t win that the war can end. He may continue to terrorize the world through hunger or explosions, such as at Zaporizhia’s nuclear plant, but force is the only way to stop him.
Ukraine never called NATO troops to fight. We only ask for weapons to support our Armed Forces. With your support, we will fight to make the world a better place. In Spring, the world didn’t believe in us. They believe in us now. We could win tomorrow, but how many months will we have to wait?
Oleksii, Member of Parliament in Odesa, Ukraine
