Don’t Forget Trump Got 74 Million Votes in 2020. The Reelection Threat Is Real.

There is no way to predict the outcome of an election. There There,This wild moment. These once reliable polling companies are now looking at their suddenly inaccurate data like NASA scientists were watching Atlas rockets go. corkscrewingThe Mercury launch pad in the early days.

All I know is that any time period that can produce a news sentence accurately is possible like this — “Michael Avenatti, the lawyer who pressured former President Donald Trump to pay a settlement to a stripper, was sentenced to 30 months in prison yesterday for trying to extort millions of dollars from sportswear company Nike Inc.” — is not a time frame I’m comfortable guessing about. Anyone who says otherwise is trying to sell you something — probably a subscription to a polling page. For the present, my election-year yard sign reads, “Meteor 2024: Because That Rhymes.”

There is a chill in my soul that carries a sense of dread. It is not something to ignore. It is hard to remember a time when so many opposing but equally dangerous forces have converged in such a menacing fashion. And it seems that very few are willing to even acknowledge it. Some of the perils we face are open-ended, with no clear demarcation between “Hurry up!” and “Too late.” This is not one of those: I can tell you the exact day the deal I fear will go down, if it does go down at all.

For emphasis: This is not what my mind believes will happen. This is what I’m terrified could happen, one possibility in an infinite universe. It is already happening to a certain extent.

A political snapshot shows that President Obama’s approval ratings are lower then snake snot. Joe Biden is a convenient target for a grumpy, unsatisfied electorate that wants to take responsibility for their two-year loss. Inflation, gas prices, supply shortages and the still-muddied economic waters of the COVID era have constantly disrupted the administration’s best legislative efforts, with the help of a coal baron senator whose party designation is as meaningful as a diamond made of glue. Thanks in no small part to this White House’s bizarre disinterest in promoting its positive and popular policy achievements, it is entirely probable these conditions will continue to linger until November.

Meanwhile, war crimes committed in Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s Russian military forces are the daily fare of the news networks. While most agree that the U.S. cannot directly challenge another nuclear power on the battlefield, the anguish unfolding before us has left many urging more “action,” whatever that means in this devastating context.

As with the Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden’s stance is one of grim necessity that has no satisfying answer; there will be suffering no matter what, and that suffering will wear on voters the longer the war drags on. Ukraine will be a major issue in November, just like Afghanistan.

The Democratic House and Senate majorities hang by a thread. Senators Jon Tester (Montana), Sherrod brown in Ohio, Bob Casey (Pennsylvania), Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin and Debbie Stabenow (Michigan) are just a few of the many candidates who face razor-close races.

The prospects of Democrats salvaging their own majority in the House are also grim. Republicans in both chambers, meanwhile, have all but abandoned the idea of an agenda, and instead are “flooding the zone” with incendiary and harmful nonsense about pedophiles, immigration, “CRT,” the “rigged” 2020 election and whatever else they can fling in order to “win” the news day.

Example: Instead of discussing the reinstatement the hugely beneficial child tax credit, which was recently canceled by Republicans, the most current discussions center around whether godless socialist teachers are teaching students to. use litter boxes in the restroomThey identify themselves as cats at the event. How did it happen? ThatHow can a patently false rumor get started? Republicans. They are once again promoting bizarre conspiracy fears in order to motivate an already motivated voter base and to roil public opinion for everyone else. This train never stops.

All of the above, at present, is fact, and it doesn’t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Although circumstances can change overnight, it is the intangibles that I fear most.

A Florida judge just blew up the mask mandate for airlines and most public transportation, just as the COVID subvariant of omicron, the “stealth variant” BA.2, becomes the dominant strain in the U.S. Yesterday saw an increase of 42 percent in the number of people infected, with almost 42,000 people being infected. This upward trend has been growing for several weeks and is continuing to grow. While it is unlikely that BA.2 will cause another spike in infections, we have seen this exact moment before and the horrors that followed.

If BA.2 decides to spread its wings like its cousins have before, the outbreak could last for months — and who knows what the COVID outlook will be on Election Day. A population once again asked to wear masks and avoid public gatherings after more than two years of pain and sacrifice, a population forced to endure skyrocketing prices and the shame of a war they can’t stop, might be a loose cannon at the polls. Although it is impossible to predict the outcome, Democrats could lose both chambers if these difficult circumstances prevail.

We now find ourselves in a world of questions. Will Biden, who was unable to run for the House and Senate in 2000 after being defeated, be able to run again in 2024? Can he win if he does? If he doesn’t, can the Democrats make a switch-horses-in-midstream argument the electorate can accept? Will the economy and COVID be any more stable, or will the current elongated crises take on the smell of the inevitable?

Final question: Will Donald Trump run for re-election in 2024? Although he hasn’t yet spoken out, all available signs point to “yes.” If he does announce his candidacy, his still-towering popularity with the GOP base could clear the field of contenders. He received more votes than 74 million in 2020, which is a remarkable haul for someone who lost. Yet, he still has a campaign war fund of staggering size.

The possibility of Trump not running doesn’t mean we can breathe easy, either. Trumpist fascism will likely be the nominee for the Republican nomination in 2024. Trump could be even more dangerous than you think.

None of this is certain by any stretch, but all of it is why I don’t sleep much anymore. I invite you to share your ideas about how to stop this potential cataclysm from happening. It’s never too late, until it is.

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