New polling continues the trend of close midterm elections in 2022. Both Republican and Democratic parties appear to be in a statistical tie over who voters want to run Congress next year.
The Supreme Court’s decision to end abortion rights protections appears to be helping Democrats’ numbers.
In an Emerson College poll published on FridayRespondents were asked to vote for who they would vote for if the midterms occurred right now. Voters were split nearly evenly on the question, with 43.7 percent saying they’d back the Democratic candidate in their House race versus 44.7 percent saying they’d prefer the Republican candidate to win.
The 1 point difference is within the survey’s 2.9 point margin of error, which means the two parties are essentially tied, according to the poll.
Both parties’ voters appear equally motivated to vote, with 93.4 percent of Democratic-leaning voters saying they are very or somewhat motivated, and 93.2 percent of Republican-leaning voters saying the same.
Despite the statistical tie between the major parties, Democrats are likely to be more pleased by the news. Emerson College polls throughout this year suggested that Republicans were likely leading in the midterms. In February, Republicans led Democrats nine points to one, but that gap has steadily shrunk in the intervening months.
The majority of those supporting Democrats seem motivated by the Supreme Court’s upending of abortion rights recognitions in a decision issued last month. According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, “those who say abortion is the top issue facing the nation are more motivated to vote this November than any other issue group.”
“Among the nearly 1 in 10 voters for whom abortion is the top issue, 89% are very motivated to vote this November; comparatively, 76% of voters who say the economy is the top issue are very motivated to vote,” Kimball said, adding that “voters who say abortion is the most important issue break for the Democratic congressional candidate over Republicans 80% to 8%.”
The new polling numbers suggest it will be a tight race, though prognosticators continue to say that the midterms are the GOP’s to lose. Typically, the party of an incumbent president tends to lose seats in the first midterm of their tenure — but this year appears to be an atypical one, as this and other polls have shown.
According to an average of polling data from Real Clear Politics(RCP), most polls show Republicans having a slim lead over Democrats at 44.3 percent. Democrats poll at 42.7 per cent in various surveys. The margin of error in most polls is 1.6 points, so the RCP numbers indicate that race is tied at this point.
These numbers can be compared with RCP’s average of polls at this point in the 2018 midterms. On July 22, 2017, Democrats, who were trying to win Congress after Trump’s victory two years earlier, led Republicans by 7.4 points on average in polls. Nationally, the party won the midterm elections by 8.4 percentage points.
Common bellwethers — including President Joe Biden’s dismal polling numbers — still suggest that Democrats face an uphill battle in retaining one or both houses of Congress this year. But in addition to important issues like abortion, other issues could also interrupt Republicans’ chances of winning, Even if Donald Trump, the former President, decides to run for presidentIn 2024, just before the midterm election of November.
