Drawing on opinion polls published in the three weeks since Kwarsi Kwarteng’s mini budget, politics.co.uk’s latest Westminster model provides a graphic illustration of how the Conservatives would be decimated in any election held today.
A general election today would see Labour win with a working majority in 82 seats. The Conservatives would lose 231 current MPs.
14 current cabinet ministers would lose seats at Westminster, including the new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, deputy prime Minister Therese Coffey and Penny Mordaunt, who is also a potential leader.
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The Labour party’s poll lead grew to 11% in the first three weeks of Truss’ premiership. The party was already on course to win seats in parts of the country where it had always been a distant spectator. These included Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset and Macclesfield in Cheshire. Bromley and Chiselhurst were also in south east London.
However, in the light of last week’s mini budget, the situation now appears even more dramatic for the Conservatives.
With the Labour poll lead in October at 25.45%, the party will now win Huntingdon. Huntingdon was once the most secure Conservative seat in England. It was previously represented at Westminster by John Major, who was then prime minister.
Based on 2019 election boundaries, it would also be gaining the Isle of Wight. This area of the English Channel has never been represented by Labour in Westminster.
Perhaps the most dramatic thing of all is that the Labour Party would even win the Cotswolds over the Conservatives.
The polling currently shows the remarkable shift in British politics that took place over the past 12 month. Boris Johnson held a 5% lead over Labour in the opinion polls at the same time in 2021.
