Conservatives would be down to 131 seats, with Labour gaining Epsom and the Isle of Wight

Drawing on opinion polls published in the three weeks since Kwarsi Kwarteng’s mini budget,’s latest Westminster model provides a graphic illustration of how the Conservatives would be decimated in any election held today.

Labour would win a general elections with a working majority of 84 seats.  234 of the Conservatives’ MPs would go with them.

14 cabinet ministers who are currently sitting would be losing their seats at Westminster. This includes the new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt and deputy prime minister Therese Coffeey.


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The Labour party’s lead in the opinion polls grew to 11% during the Truss premiership’s first three weeks.  The party was already in position to win seats where it has been a distant spectator.  These included Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset and Macclesfield in Cheshire. Bromley and Chiselhurst were also in south east London.

However, in the light of late September’s mini budget, the situation has become even more dramatic for the Conservatives.

With the Labour poll lead in October at 25.45%, the party will now win Huntingdon. Huntingdon was once the most secure Conservative seat in England. It was previously represented at Westminster by John Major, who was then prime minister.

Based on 2019 election boundaries, it would also be gaining the Isle of Wight.  This section of the English Channel was never represented by Labour at Westminster.

Labour Party would even win Epsom and Ewell over the Conservatives.  Average house prices in Epsom and Ewell are some £553,452, twice the national average.

The polling currently shows the dramatic shift in British politics over the past 12 months.  Boris Johnson held a lead of 5% in opinion polls over Labour at this point last year.