Conservatives would be down to 131 seats, with Labour gaining Epsom and the Isle of Wight

Drawing on opinion polls published in the three weeks since Kwarsi Kwarteng’s mini budget,’s latest Westminster model provides a graphic illustration of how the Conservatives would be decimated in any election held today.

Labour would win the general election with a working majority and 84 seats.  The Conservatives would lose 234 out of their current MPs.

14 current cabinet ministers would lose seats at Westminster, including the new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, deputy prime Minister Therese Coffey and Penny Mordaunt, who is also a potential leader.


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During the first three weeks of the Truss premiership, the Labour party’s opinion poll lead grew to 11%.  The party was already in position to win seats where it has been a distant spectator.  These included Bournemouth constituencies, Macclesfield, Cheshire, Bromley, and Chiselhurst, south east London.

The Conservatives are now facing a more difficult situation after the September mini budget.

With the Labour poll lead in October at 25.45%, the party will now win Huntingdon. Huntingdon was once the most secure Conservative seat in England. It was previously represented at Westminster by John Major, who was then prime minister.

Based on 2019 election boundaries, it would also be gaining the Isle of Wight.  This section of the English Channel was never represented by Labour at Westminster.

Labour Party would even seize Epsom, Ewell and Ewell from Conservatives, who are famous for the annual Epsom Derby Horse Race. Average house prices in this part of Surrey are some £553,452, twice the national average.

The polling currently shows the dramatic shift in British politics over the past 12 months.  Boris Johnson held a lead of 5% in opinion polls over Labour at this point last year.