Donald Trump just won the caucuses in Nevada. What is not unusual is that he won; he had been favored in the polls. What is unusual is his margin of victory — he won an extremely high percentage, which was 45.9% of the votes!
Now, with 3 victories in 4 contests, the question is: Is it almost inevitable that Donald will win the Republican nomination? Here are two opposing views.
YES — For those saying 'Yes' it is almost certain Donald will win; they can point to the fact that...
- For decades the person who won 2 out of 3 of the first contests has gone on to win the Republican nomination.
- Trump has a fragmented opposition which helps him also, in that his opposition is splintered and divides their votes.
- Trump is extremely popular with older people, who tend to vote in higher percentages, and also appeals to blue collar workers and people who might cross over from the Democratic party.
- In addition, he benefits from an enormous amount of free publicity and has a strong pro-America message which appeals to large numbers of people.
NO — For those saying Donald can be beat, they can point to facts like these:
- Only about 1/3 of voters on average are voting for Donald, which means 2/3 of Republican voters prefer someone else
- As the Republican field narrows and people drop out, his opposition may come together behind one candidate — most likely Cruz or Rubio — which will make it much tougher for Trump
- Donald in the past has supported liberal causes, and this could make conservatives increasingly uneasy about his candidacy
- Trump may say things so outrageous that he turns off a significant number of voters who turn to another candidate.
Which will it be? You decide what you believe! No matter what, the amazing fact that Donald is now the clear leader — which almost no one would have guesses a year ago — cannot be denied.