Abortion, Gun Violence Give Democrats Slight Edge Over GOP in Midterm Polls

This week’s new polling shows that Democrats are building momentum for the 2022 midterm races just two months before Election Day.

The attitudes of voters could, of course, change between now and then, but historically, most Americans’ minds have been made up on who they plan to vote for at this point in the election season. For example, the 2018 midterms will be a test of this. an average of polling data collected on September 1 of that yearThe national lead for Democrats was 8.4 points. After all ballots were counted, Democrats won the election by 8.4 points.

According to a new Wall Street Journal poll, Democrats are leading Republicans in this year’s midterm races, too, though by a much smaller margin.

The poll respondents were asked a general ballot question: If the election were held today, which congressional candidate are they more likely to vote in favor of? Forty-seven percent said they’d pick the Democratic candidate in their home district, while 44 percent said they preferred the Republican option.

That’s a flip from where things stood in the same poll in March — at that time, 46 percent said they wanted a Republican to win, while only 41 percent said they would choose a generic Democratic candidate to represent them.

What’s changed? The Wall Street Journal poll asked respondents questions about a number of issuesWhether certain events in the past year have made them more likely to vote.

The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn abortion rights that were protected in Roe v. Wade appears to have a significant impact on voters’ decision to cast a ballot this year, with 56 percent saying that decision will make them more likely to vote. Gun violence, too, will play a role in turning out votes, with the same rate, 56 percent of respondents, saying that the issue will make it more likely that they’ll take part in the midterms this year.

Even the search warrant executed by the FBI at former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence seems to be motivating at least some voters to head to the polls. 51 percent of respondents said that the event won’t have any impact on their vote. 47 percent however said that it will make them more likely this year to vote.

The Wall Street Journal This poll is consistent with others from recent days, which suggests that Democrats have a good chance of retaining control this fall. In a similar generic question asked by an Economist/YouGov poll published on Wednesday, 46 percent say they intend to vote for a Democrat while only 38 percent say they’ll vote for the Republican in their district. A generic ballot question a Politico/Morning Consult pollAccording to 47% of voters, a Democrat would be supported if the House elections were held today. Only 42 percent said the GOP nominee would win their votes.

While some polls still show Republicans ahead of Democrats — which is the expected result, given that traditionally the party of a newly elected president tends to lose seats in their first midterm contests — Democrats do appear to be gaining ground, making it a tight race overall. At the beginning of June, an aggregate of polling data collected by RealClearPolitics According to the polls, Republicans held a 1.9 point advantage over Democrats. Today, Democrats are ahead but just barely. beating Republicans in an average of polls by 0.1 points.

Both findings are within most polls’ margins of error. However, the latest polling data is good enough to make election prognosticators reconsider their previous ratings for several congressional races.

The Cook Political Report is an example. changed its ratings for five House races on Thursday in a way that favors Democrats’ chances. Four seats that were previously deemed “toss up” are now “lean Democrat,” according to their analysis, with a fifth seat in Alaska — recently won in a special election by Democrat Mary Peltola — going from “lean Republican” to “toss up” for the general election.

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