Boris Johnson’s successor—the runners and riders

At the time this article was written, it is not clear if Sunak wants the top job. He may want to live a life without the public eye and the risks of public life, thanks to his bank background and safe place on Sunday Times Rich List. It is unlikely that he would succeed, even if it was possible. Sunak’s image, though not as damaged as Johnson’s, has been dented party by his association with the erstwhile “big dog” and by his own dramas. Sunak was also fined for violating Covid rules, much like Johnson.

His image also suffered from recent revelations over his wife’s non-dom tax status, and his possession of a US green card while a minister. The former chancellor is a popular figure in the parliamentary party, and has a strong chance to be nominated by many MPs if he stands for the top job. According to a snap poll, Sunak is the only top leadership candidate with a chance to bat Labour at a general elections. Could “Dishy Rishi”, held in high regard by much of the Tory grassroots and general public for so long, regain his mojo?

• Lack of Johnson collateral (4/10).
• Presentation (9/10).
• Perceived competence (9/10).
• Relationship with Conservative Members (4/10)
• Potential Popularity among the public (6/10).

Liz Truss – Chances may be over-egged (23)

Truss is the most talked about candidate, aside from the ex-chancellor. Like Ben Wallace, her popularity has improved alongside Johnson’s declining fortunes and the Ukraine crisis- despite her often gaffe-prone approach. Truss is a long-standing cabinet member, but she doesn’t always present herself as smoothly as one might think. The ongoing row over Northern Ireland could be divisive. However many doubt that the ex-Lib Dem and erstwhile remainer-turned-arch-brexiteer has deep enough traction with Conservative MPs to persist in the contest.

While she was central in the cabinet, her role as foreign secretary since last September’s reshuffle means she has been recently away from the centre of the action, flying back from the G20 as Johnson tendered his resignation.

• Lack of Johnson collateral:  (4/10)
• Presentation: (5/10)
• Perceived competence (5/10).
• Relationship with Conservative members (7/10).
• Potential Popularity in the Public: (2/10).

Sajid Javid (31)

Sajid Javid became the first person of colour to hold one of the ‘Great Offices of State’ following his appointment as home secretary in 2018.

He achieved fourth place in the 2019 leadership race, with his failure probably in part tied to his support of ‘Remain’ in 2016.

Javid was deemed a safe pair of eyes after he resigned as chancellor in 2019, following a spat avec Dominic Cummings. Javid was appointed to replace Matt Hancock, who resigned after evidence showed that he had violated social distancing rules with his female aide.

However, votes for a “safe” candidate could easily go to another MP should Javid fail to make his mark.

Javid, upon taking over, positioned himself as more skeptical of certain Covid restrictions. He had previously criticised compulsory vaccinations, vaccine passports, and social distancing. His media appearances are polished and professional. just18% of the public like him, while 33% are neutral. This means that he has the potential to increase his likability.

Javid may be able to shift responsibility for any negative aspects of Matt Hancock’s pandemic response. Javid’s ascendancy to the top spot could also work with Conservative members, with him sitting at a respectable +43 in ConHome’s latest Cabinet league table.

• Lack of Johnson collateral: (6/10).
• Presentation: (8/10).
• Perceived competence (9/10).
• Relationship with Conservative Members (4/10)
• Potential Popularity among the Public: (4/10).

Penny Mordaunt – Potentially a least disliked candidate – (32)

Theresa May’s brief defence secretary, Mordaunt has received a significant amount of attention over the past few days. The brexiteer trade secretary has a low profile but is popular with party members. It is not clear if she would be nominated enough by enough MPs in order to run for leader. Although she did not resign as a minister in the Pincher scandal, it is possible that her chances of winning are lessened by this.

However her 2021 remarks to MPs that “transmen are men and transwomen are women” could lead to some culture war tussles with fellow leadership rivals that may not bode well for her grassroots popularity.

• Lack of Johnson collateral: (8/10).
• Presentation: (6/10)
• Perceived competence (5/10).
• Relationship with Conservative members (8/10).
• Potential Popularity: (5/10)

Tom Tugendhat – Ambitious but may have too many enemies – (28)

If Jeremy Hunt does not stand, the current chair of the committee’s foreign affairs could be a good choice for the candidate for the left. Tugendhat is open about his ambitions and has a confident exterior that could make him a great leader. However many MPs have revealed their reset for Tugendhat’s perceived priggishness given his lack of government experience. He is a European Commissioner’s nephew and a remainer. He could face backlash from his party roots for his perceived warmth to the EU. His pro-EU record could make him less appealing to many members.

• Lack of Johnson collateral (10/10)
• Presentation: (6/10)
• Perceived competence (5/10).
• Relationship with Conservative Members (3/10).
• Potential Popularity: (3/10)

Jeremy Hunt – Yesterday’s man – (31)

Hunt, who was previously the foreign secretary and health secretary, is clearly ambitious. He has not ruled out another bid to be the top. However Hunt’s fresh chances of success depend on whether the Tory left decides to unite around one candidate. Hunt has been on the backbenches for a while to build support, but this doesn’t guarantee his candidacy. It is difficult to imagine Hunt being elected by the membership, given his connections with two previous administrations and his strong support of staying in the EU.

• Lack of Johnson collateral (10/10)
• Presentation: (7/10)
• Perceived competence (9/10).
• Relationship with Conservative members (2/10)
• Potential Popularity: (3/10)

Nadhim Zahawi – Strong Candidate – (30/50)

Nadhim Zahawi, a newly minted chancellor, was thrust into the national spotlight after he was appointed vaccines minister. He managed the fastest Covid jab rollouts in Europe. His polished style of speaking is evident in his regular broadcast appearances for the government, even before he was made a minister. 

However, Zahawi’s acceptance of promotion to chancellor following Sunak’s shock resignation on Tuesday, quickly followed by his push to unseat Johnson from Wednesday evening has possibly coloured his reputation as one of ruthlessness. His succession of cabinet positions under Johnson could also make him too closely associated with the disgraced PM to offer him a chance at replacing him.

His compelling personal story of being an Iraqi Kurdish refugee, turned chemical engineer, turned cabinet minister, and his credible demeanour could still help to him get through to MPs.

• Johnson collateral missing: (3/10).
• Presentation: (7/10)
• Perceived competence (9/10).
• Relationship with Conservative members (6/10)
• Potential Popularity among the Public: (5/10).

Suella Braverman – An interesting outsider – (28/30)

There is a track record of “wild card” contenders in many previous Conservative leadership races. Andrea Leadsom did well in 2016 before a blunder pushed her to step aside for May, IDS, Cameron, and Mrs Thatcher herself are all examples of “outsiders” who shot to the top. Braverman could possibly continue to fight for the Tory roots against just a handful of other candidates if she were to persevere at the contest’s beginning. Her strong “anti-woke” comments could make Braverman the candidate of the Tory right, which will give her an initial rump of votes.

Her remarks that she intended to stand as leader, but her failure to resign as attorney general, while Johnson remained embroiled in a bitter fight to stay in office on Wednesday night can be perceived as a clever attempt to gain the first mover’s advantage, or a mismanaged attempt to sit on the fence.

• Lack of Johnson collateral:  6/10)
• Presentation: (6/10)
• Perceived competence (4/10).
• Relationship with Conservative members (6/10).
• Potential Popularity among the Public: (6/10).

Ben Wallace – The Favourite – (40/50)

Wallace, a former military officer, has been serving as defense secretary since 2019. This could be considered a wise choice as war continues in Ukraine.

Wallace has served as an MSP from 1999 to 2003 and was elected to cabinet in 2019. He supported remain, but his public image is still very fresh and undercooked. 

Wallace also remained with Johnson until his death, although his tweets indicate that this was more due to a sense of duty for British defense at a tie in crisis than his support for the PM.

• Lack of Johnson collateral: (6/10).
• Presentation: (7/10)
• Perceived competence (8/10).
• Relationship with Conservative members (9/10).
• Potential Popularity in the Public: (6/10).