One Person's Decision is Key to the Republican Presidential Nomination

As we come down to the Final Four in the Republican Presidential race — Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich — one person seems to hold the key.

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Who is that person? According to one way of thinking, that person is Marco Rubio. If Rubio continues to stay in the race, he splits the "non-Trump" vote with Ted Cruz. This means Ted Cruz will continue to get beat by Donald Trump — and Trump will gain the nomination.

If Rubio withdraws, now or after Florida, and if John Kasich does as well, then it becomes a two person race. So far, about 1/3 of voters favor Trump and 2/3 favor someone else. Some of Rubio's and some of Kasich's voters will go to Trump, but a number will probably go to Cruz. Now you have a true two person race. Will Trump still win? Perhaps he will.

But it seems highly probable that if Rubio stays in, the "non-Trump" vote will be split and Donald Trump will win.