How Ted Cruz Could do Better than Expected on Super Tuesday

On Super Tuesday, March 15, the main conversation has been about Trump against Rubio in Florida and Trump against Kasich in Ohio. These two states are enormously important; if Trump wins, it could spell the end of Kasich and Rubio's presidential aspirations this year. Both Florida and Ohio are winner-take-all states, which means whoever gets the most votes wins all the delegates.

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But there are 3 other states that vote on Super Tuesday — Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina. These 3 states combined have even more delegates — about 190 — than Florida and Ohio, that have about 160 combined. And these 3 states award delegates proportionately, meaning more than 1 candidate can win delegates depending on how many votes and in what areas.

While Ted Cruz is not favored to win in any of the 5 states on Super Tuesday, he and his campaign have been working hard to target specific communities in Missouri, Illinois and North Carolina. If they can win in those communities, they can win delegates — and at the end of the day, it is delegates that count. The Cruz campaign so far has done very well with delegates; even though Cruz has won far less states than Trump, Cruz is less than 100 delegates behind Trump.

So at the end of the day Tuesday, don't just look at how many states each candidate won — look at how many delegates each won won on Tuesday. And don't be surprised if Ted Cruz ends up with a very nice increase in delegates, even though he may not get the headlines in Florida and Ohio.